Poll: Michigan voters won't back more casinos

Michigan voters appear to be less than enthusiastic about a ballot proposal to develop up to eight new casinos in the state, and don’t believe promised benefits – like more jobs and more money for schools – will be delivered, according to a poll released this week by a coalition opposed to the expansion.

 

The poll, conducted by the Mellman Group in Washington, D.C., and obtained by the Free Press, found only 34% of those surveyed support the initiative, while 47% oppose it. Nineteen percent are undecided.

 

When asked about potential outcomes, voters said it was more likely than not (46% vs.13%) that expanded gaming would increase special interest money in state politics, less likely (27% vs. 30%) that more Michigan kids would attend college, less likely (27% vs. 32%) there would be more money to fund schools, less likely (20% vs. 41%) that gaming would help to avoid other cuts in state spending and extremely unlikely (16% vs. 52%) that more casinos would keep property taxes down.

 

The survey of 616 likely voters was conducted January 19-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

 

Pollster Mark Mellman said support for the proposal, developed by segments of the horse racing industry in Michigan, is so meager that “the bottom line is that it really has no support ... and no chance of winning.”

 

Ballot proposals traditionally fare poorly unless the base of support at the beginning of the campaign is over 50%, Mellman said.

 

“Here, there’s no base to build on,” he said. “People feel that (the Detroit and Indian) casinos have been useful. But they’re not anxious to see more.”

 

The survey was sponsored by the group Protect MI Vote, a coalition of current state gaming interests who hope to head off competition and social conservatives who oppose gambling.

 

It remains unclear whether the threat to the state’s constitutional cap on casino gaming, approved by voters in 2004, is viable. Two groups submitted petition language for proposals to expand gambling to state elections officials earlier this year. But only one (the 8 new casinos plan) has been reported on the street collecting signatures, and only on a limited basis.

 

Representatives of the group, called Racing to Save Michigan, did not respond to multiple requests for comment this week.

 

To qualify the proposal for the November election, the group would have to collect signatures from 386,000 registered voters by July 5.

 

Contact DAWSON BELL: 517-372-8661 or dbell@freepress.com.